Asian handicap explained

Asian handicap is the most common surebet market we see: more than half of the surebets in our data are handicaps. It is simple once the three kinds of line click.

The idea

One team gets a head start (a plus line) or a deficit (a minus line) in goals. The bet is settled on the score after adding the handicap. A team at -1.5 has to win by 2 or more; a team at +1.5 can lose by 1 and still win the bet.

There is no draw outcome: the line either splits the result cleanly or refunds the stake.

Half lines: -0.5, +1.5, -2.5

The adjusted score can never be level, so the bet either wins or loses.

• -0.5: your team must win. Same as backing the winner without the draw.
• +0.5: your team must not lose. Same as "win or draw" (double chance).

Whole lines: 0, -1, +2

If the adjusted score is level, the stake comes back (a push).

• 0 (also called draw no bet): your team wins, you win; a draw refunds; a loss loses.
• -1: win by 2+ and you win; win by exactly 1 and you get the stake back; anything else loses.

Quarter lines: -0.25, -0.75, +1.25

The stake is split in two halves on the two neighbouring lines. One half can win or lose while the other pushes, which gives a half win or a half loss.

The Asian handicap calculator shows what any line returns for every final margin.

Why handicaps make surebets

Books set handicaps at many lines and update them at different speeds, so one book's -0.75 and another's +0.75 on the other team can have implied probabilities that add up to less than 1. Both legs split the same way, so the cover holds for every score, half results included.

Where it goes wrong

• Different lines. -0.75 on one side and +0.5 on the other is not a cover: a one-goal win leaves one leg half-winning and the other losing.
• Different periods. A first-half line against a full-time line covers nothing.
• Different rules. Extra time, abandoned matches and how a book treats a push. Read the market rules at both books.
• Handicap direction. Some books show the line from the home team's side only. Check which team the number belongs to.

Arbistoteles matches every leg on fixture, market, period and line before it pairs two prices. See Why surebets disappear and The real risks.