Palps: obvious pricing errors

A palp (short for palpable error) is a price a book quoted by mistake: odds so far from every other book that it is obviously wrong. Books reserve the right to void bets placed at palps, and they use it. Palps are the main reason a big surebet is often a trap.

What a palp looks like

• One book offers 3.40 on an outcome every other book prices around 1.90.
• A handicap or total line is posted the wrong way round (+1.5 shown as -1.5).
• A player or team name is swapped, so the favourite is priced as the outsider.
• A stale price stays up after big news (a key player out, a retirement) moved every other book.

Why it matters for surebets

A surebet only works if every leg stands. If the book voids the palp leg after the match, you are left holding the other leg alone: a straight bet you never meant to place. If it loses, the "surebet" lost.

Our data shows the pattern clearly: the bigger the margin, the more often one leg is priced far from the market. Above 5%, nearly three quarters of the confirmed surebets in our data had a flagged leg.

What books' rules say

Most sportsbook terms include an "obvious error" or "palpable error" clause: the book may void a bet, or settle it at the correct price, when the odds were clearly wrong. What counts as obvious, and how long after the event they can act, varies by book. Read it before you rely on a price that looks too good.

How Arbistoteles handles it

We don't hide surebets for having a big margin: sometimes a price far from the market is real (a book slow to move, a niche market). Instead, every leg priced far from the other books gets a flag on the board, so you see the warning before you place anything. You decide. See Reading the board.

A simple rule

• Under 2% with no flag: normal surebet territory.
• 3% and above, or any flagged leg: compare the flagged price with every other book and ask why that one book is so far out.
• 10% and above: assume it is a palp until you have a reason to think otherwise.